How accurate AERIS forecasts are
For each oblast, AERIS estimates the probability that an official air-raid alert will start there within the next 30 minutes. Every forecast is checked automatically once that time has passed. This is the honest summary: we count only forecasts made while the oblast had no alert yet, because during an alert “there will be an alert” is almost certain and says nothing about quality.
Can you trust the percentages
If a forecast says “30%”, an alert should start in about 30% of such cases. The grey bar is what we forecast; the coloured bar is how often an alert really started.
- 0–10%2% · n=4,160
- 10–20%12% · n=2,447
- 20–30%23% · n=1,043
- 30–40%35% · n=495
- 40–50%50% · n=328
- 50–60%62% · n=255
- 60–70%66% · n=131
- 70–80%79% · n=52
- 80–90%50% · n=4
By oblast
Forecasts for the next 30 minutes, only those made with no active alert at the time.
| Oblast | Forecasts | Before an alert | High risk → alert | Alerts foreseen | Better than the rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherkasy Oblast | 281 | 83 | 79% | 47% | +18% |
| Chernihiv Oblast | 124 | 54 | 40% | 94% | -9% |
| Chernivtsi Oblast | 603 | 33 | — | 0% | +2% |
| Donetsk Oblast | 15 | 14 | — | 100% | -336% |
| Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast | 643 | 21 | — | 0% | +5% |
| Kherson Oblast | 650 | 23 | — | 0% | -13% |
| Khmelnytskyi Oblast | 498 | 45 | — | 16% | +5% |
| Kirovohrad Oblast | 303 | 129 | 97% | 65% | +21% |
| Kyiv City | 479 | 98 | — | 4% | +5% |
| Kyiv Oblast | 193 | 86 | 68% | 93% | +18% |
| Luhansk Oblast | 16 | 2 | — | 0% | -8% |
| Lviv Oblast | 641 | 25 | — | 0% | +2% |
| Mykolaiv Oblast | 454 | 75 | 100% | 19% | +13% |
| Odesa Oblast | 526 | 72 | — | 25% | +14% |
| Poltava Oblast | 178 | 85 | 67% | 69% | +2% |
| Rivne Oblast | 526 | 68 | 100% | 10% | +13% |
| Sumy Oblast | 81 | 52 | 73% | 100% | +3% |
| Ternopil Oblast | 585 | 46 | — | 0% | +10% |
| Vinnytsia Oblast | 388 | 71 | 57% | 59% | +9% |
| Volyn Oblast | 595 | 44 | — | 0% | +5% |
| Zakarpattia Oblast | 671 | 3 | — | 0% | -15% |
| Zaporizhzhia Oblast | 77 | 50 | 83% | 98% | -5% |
| Zhytomyr Oblast | 388 | 75 | 20% | 20% | -5% |
Other horizons
- 5 minutes: checked 8,940, high risk → alert —, foreseen 1%, better than the rate +7%
- 15 minutes: checked 8,927, high risk → alert 44%, foreseen 18%, better than the rate +16%
- 30 minutes: checked 8,915, high risk → alert 70%, foreseen 43%, better than the rate +23%
The forecast is a statistical estimate of risk for the oblast as a whole, not a warning. It does not say where or when anything will strike, and it does not replace official air-raid alert signals: in danger, act on them.
How we count: a forecast counts as correct if an official alert started in the oblast within its horizon (alerts.in.ua; for Kyiv, Kyiv Digital). “High risk” means the “high” and “critical” levels; “foreseen” means the level before the alert was at least “elevated”. Model versions in this period: forecast-logistic-5.